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Who Watches the Trade Deadline: The Rams’ Strange New World

NFL
By Sports News Center 247
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NFL Week 9 – Where to even begin?

It is Thursday afternoon, and you are reading this article.

It is Wednesday evening, and I’m trying to put together the pieces of what just happened.

It is Tuesday morning, and none of us know what the trade deadline has in store.

Rarely do we have so much breaking news on one non-game, non-draft day. November 1 would be a random Tuesday during the NFL season if it didn’t happen to coincide with the NFL trade deadline. As it is, so much happened that keeping track of everything all at once was … next to impossible. News was flowing in and out, reports being constantly updated and changed, old breaking news mingling with new breaking news mixing with rumors about upcoming breaking news. Between tweets and retweets and recaps and commentary shows, all the news floated in and around each other, overlapping in ways that could make a man mad.

The NFL trade deadline is, traditionally, much ado about nothing. Players do not get sent back and forth around the league, certainly not in midseason. The deadline is too early in the year for teams to be in panicked selling mode, like you see in baseball, and there aren’t minor league prospects to send to losing teams in deals; a draft pick is far more of a lottery ticket than a player active in AAA. The deadline is too late in the year to fundamentally shift a football team—again, in baseball, you can grab a third starter for your rotation or a cleanup hitter for your lineup without worrying about how it will affect the rest of your squad, as baseball is very much a team game played by individuals. No, no, no, conventional wisdom states. You don’t want to muck about with team chemistry at this point in the season—what if you don’t win the Super Bowl and you lose that second-round draft pick forever for no reason? Much better to stay the course with who you have got and just coach your way past deficiencies.

It’s April 28, 2016, and the Los Angeles Rams are on the clock. They use a first-round pick on quarterback Jared Goff, looking to break the cycle of Case Keenums, Nick Foleses, and Austin Davises that they have been floundering with for years. The Rams trade away their 2017 first-rounder to move up to grab Goff. Little does anyone realize—including the Rams—this will be Los Angeles’ last first-round pick for at least a half-decade.

It’s February 13, 2022, and the confetti is falling at SoFi Stadium. The Rams have just won the Super Bowl, thanks in part to a pass rush led by Von Miller’s two sacks and three quarterback hits. Rams general manager Les Snead is picking out his wardrobe for the Super Bowl parade, a t-shirt emblazoned with the slogan that has become synonymous with the Rams: “Fuck them picks.”

It’s November, 2021, and the Rams are making a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline. They send second- and third-round picks to the Denver Broncos to bring in Von Miller. The addition of Miller helps boost the Los Angeles defense, as they go from a -4.3% DVOA without him to a -19.0% DVOA over the final stretch of the season.

Is it overly simplistic to say that the Rams winning the Super Bowl last season has fundamentally changed the way teams look at in-season trades? A little, sure; trades have been slowly rising over the past decade. But the NFL is nothing if not a copycat league, and since the Rams’ strategy of mortgaging their future to bring in proven veteran players has resulted in a Super Bowl win, any lingering hesitation with breaking the seal and making big in-season moves is gone. After all, if the Rams can add players such as Miller or Jalen Ramsey in the middle of the year and go on to win titles, why can’t everyone?

It’s October 21, 2022. The Rams, desperate to improve their running back situation, are offering the Carolina Panthers second- and third-round picks in 2023, fourth- and fifth-round picks in 2024, and Cam Akers for running back Christian McCaffrey. They are rebuffed, as the San Francisco 49ers trump them with three mid-round picks in 2023—picks the Rams did not have to offer.

It’s August 25, 2021. The Rams are sending their fourth-round pick in 2023 to New England for running back Sony Michel. Michel will have two carries in the Rams’ Super Bowl win, then leave the franchise for the Dolphins in the offseason.

It’s October 30, 2022. The Rams are starting undrafted free agent Ronnie Rivers at running back. San Francisco starts McCaffrey. McCaffrey scores three touchdowns—one passing, one rushing, and one receiving—as the 49ers once again beat the Rams, sending the two franchises’ playoff outlooks in vastly different directions.

I legitimately thought we had already seen the biggest moves we were going to see this year—a bunch of big-time moves made before deadline day had even started. The 49ers trading the middle portion of next year’s draft for McCaffrey, after already trading the upper portion of next year’s draft for Trey Lance, was the all-in move we were going to see. Sending three prime draft picks for a running back, of all things, is terrible value—the Jets were able to get the very solid James Robinson from Jacksonville for just a conditional sixth-round pick. And the 49ers have already spent gobs of capital on running backs—the huge Jerick McKinnon contract (319 rushing yards with San Francisco)? Mid-round picks on Joe Williams (0), Trey Sermon (167), and Tyrion Davis-Price (37)? The best rushers the 49ers have had are UDFAs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson and sixth-round pick Elijah Mitchell, and yet here’s more capital sent after a running back once more. The 49ers are routinely at the bottom of our free agency cost-benefit analysis pieces because they have shown, time and again, that they don’t care how many resources they give out to get Their Guys.

But man, McCaffrey in a Shanahan offense? That’s really exciting. The idea of a backfield with McCaffrey, Trey Lance, Deebo Samuel, and Kyle Juszczyk all lining up simultaneously should bring terror to defensive coordinators around the league. And even before that gets fully engaged, it’s paying dividends—the 49ers do not win the game against the Rams if Los Angeles has McCaffrey and they do not. The piper will have to be paid, but from an on-field perspective, we have already seen what CMC can do with the 49ers, and that’s before he has even internalized the entire playbook. Fear them after the bye week.

And that was almost enough for an article—McCaffrey and the 49ers, followed with Andy Reid and the Chiefs attempting to collect all the WR2 and WR3s in the world by adding Kadarius Toney, and the Bears beginning their dismantling by sending Robert Quinn to the undefeated Eagles for a song. Those moves, along with the James Robinson, Robbie Anderson, and Deion Jones trades, would be enough to qualify 2022 as one of the biggest in-season trade years in history. But covering a bunch of moves in October for a Thursday article? Eh, I don’t know about that.

It’s 10:30 on Tuesday morning. In the FO writers email chain discussing columns for this week, Bryan Knowles is writing “Might end up doing something with the trades this year (and the not-trades), but it’d be great if there was one more big hook to make that work.”

It’s March 4, 2009. Mike Tanier is writing “Who Watches the Walkthrough?,” still often cited as one of his best columns for Football Outsiders.

Ten trades! Ten of them, in one day! That’s the stat that everyone’s citing, and technically, it’s wrong—the Roquan Smith trade, first reported on Monday, did not get officially confirmed by the league until Tuesday morning, so awkwardly shoehorn him into that graphic above as well. In fact, let’s start there…

It’s October 26. The Chicago Bears are trading edge rusher Robert Quinn to the Philadelphia Eagles for a fourth-round pick, signaling the raising of a white flag on the 2022 season for Chicago.

It’s October 31. The Chicago Bears are trading linebacker Roquan Smith to the Baltimore Ravens for a pair of 2023 picks, signaling the raising of a white flag on the 2022 season for Chicago.

It’s 1:30 in the afternoon on November 1. The Chicago Bears are sending Pittsburgh a second-round pick for receiver Chase Claypool, signaling … wait, what?

The Bears currently have—let me check and see here—70 bojillian dollars of cap space ($120 million, but who’s counting?). They also were up to the sixth-most draft capital in 2023 after dealing away Quinn and Smith, in moves that probably could have been done in August. Trading away two of your top three defenders is a white flag on the 2022 season, but each move makes sense. The Bears and Smith had gone back and forth on contract details, and paying an off-ball linebacker $20 million a year as you rebuild is probably not the best use of resources. Quinn’s 18.5 sacks last year were fluky, and getting some value from him as his inevitable regression hit is a good move, too. I’d say the Eagles got a better bargain here than the Ravens—while Smith is the better player, he now has all the leverage for a new deal with only 10 games left on his current contract, so the Ravens are either getting a rental or the ability to pay a linebacker roughly $Montana while they still have a quarterback to sign. But from the Bears point of view, this all makes sense.

Or it did, until they went and turned around and dealt a second-round pick for Claypool. Oh, I follow the logic, up to a point. You’re punting on the season, but you still want to evaluate Justin Fields, and to do that effectively, he needs someone to throw to. And, because of the little-known bylaw which prevents the Bears from signing any players during the offseason, the earliest they could get him that help was the tradeline. Great. Sounds good. Except … you’re trading what would currently be the 43rd pick in the draft for Claypool, who has never topped a -5.2% DVOA or 68 DYAR. The Steelers are actually getting a better draft pick for Claypool than they originally used in 2020, which is a massive win for Pittsburgh. Love the idea of shifting resources from defense to offense for the Bears, and I understand Claypool gives Chicago the speedy slot receiver they currently don’t have, but I think this is a move that looks better on paper than it does in reality.

Of course, accumulating cap space and draft picks for the future is a good plan if you’re rebuilding. There are other things you can do, however…

It’s March 26, 2021. The San Francisco 49ers are shocking the world by sending three first-round picks to the Miami Dolphins in order to move up and draft a quarterback to be named later. Later that afternoon, the Dolphins will send a 49ers first-round pick to Philadelphia, ensuring they’ll be able to draft Jaylen Waddle.

It’s March 23, 2022. The Miami Dolphins are sending a 49ers first-round pick to Kansas City, adding Tyreek Hill to a suddenly crowded skill position group.

It’s October 30, 2022. Ian Rapoport is reporting that the Denver Broncos are planning on keeping star edge rusher Bradley Chubb unless they get blown away by an offer.

It’s 2:30 in the afternoon on November 1. Ian Rapoport is reporting that the Miami Dolphins are sending a 49ers first-round pick to Denver, adding Bradley Chubb to their pass rush.

It’s a lot to pay to ensure that the Dolphins are the second-best team in the AFC East, I must admit. But at the same time, I sit here looking at Trey Lance’s broken ankle. And then I look at Miami, and note that Waddle and Hill have more combined receiving yards than any other duo through eight weeks in NFL history, and that Chubb is currently third in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, and yeah, things feel slightly lopsided at this point.

The price for Chubb, however, is very dear. A first and a fourth, plus running back Chase Edmonds whom they had to replace with a second trade later in the day. And while Chubb is third in pass rush win rate and has 5.5 sacks, he has been held sackless over the last three games and has generated just four pressures in that time span. This is after he was held sackless in the last 10 games of 2021. And it’s worth noting that 2.5 of his 5.5 sacks came against the Colts, whose offensive line provides pass protection in a more theoretical sense than most.

But Miami is 29th in pressure rate at 14.8%, 23rd in adjusted sack rate at 5.9% and 25th in defensive DVOA at 6.6%. They needed something if they wanted to have a chance against the nightmares floating atop the conference; something to provide any resistance at all against the Josh Allens and Patrick Mahomes of the world. There was not a better pass-rusher available, and hopefully Chubb will provide the secondary benefit of making things easier for the likes of Jaelan Phillips and Melvin Ingram—a force multiplier who will provide more value than just his own level of production. Sure, Miami could have acknowledged that Buffalo is the better team and sat on their hands, but that’s defeatist. Giving up a first-round pick and change—and a pricey contract extension—for Chubb might be too much of a gamble for my blood, but it’s the sort of gamble Miami had to take if they wanted to turn their fantastic offensive year into a season that might end up with glory at the end.

It’s April 15, 2021. The NFL is announcing new partnerships with Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel to become the first-ever Official Sports Betting Partners of the league.

It’s November 28, 2021. The Atlanta Falcons beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 21-14, benefitting from two early Jacksonville turnovers. The seven-point victory helps them cover the 1.5-point spread.

It’s March 7, 2022. The league is suspending Calvin Ridley indefinitely for betting on multiple NFL games while away from the Falcons, including the aforementioned Jaguars game. Ridley, who already wanted out of Atlanta, has no firm reinstatement date.

It’s 3 o’clock in the afternoon on November 1. The Jacksonville Jaguars are sending a confusing bundle of conditional picks to the Atlanta Falcons for Ridley. NFL Twitter spends the next 90 minutes trying to decipher the bewildering details of the trade.

It’s really very simple—the Jaguars are sending Atlanta a fifth-round pick in 2023, unless Ridley’s suspension lingers past the February 15 point where he can ask for reinstatement, in which case it slides to a sixth. They’re sending them a fourth-round pick in 2024, assuming Ridley is on the roster in 2023, which converts to a third-round pick if Ridley hits certain statistical milestones, and a second-round pick if they sign a contract extension. And if Ridley has managed to obtain both halves of the crystal key and solved the chess puzzle hidden behind the police captain’s desk, then the Jaguars will get access to the rocket launcher and two ink ribbons.

Obviously, the Jaguars are betting on the 1.5-year absence for Ridley being a minor issue in the long run, and that he’ll play like the superstar he was in 2019, when he was second in the league with a 30.6% DVOA, or the second-team All-Pro he was in 2020. But Ridley has been drawing cold since then—he was at just -16.0% in 2021 before leaving Atlanta for mental health reasons, finishing 82nd out of 91 receivers.

The Jaguars are wagering that better mental health and a surrounding receiver corps where he isn’t the only game in town is going to help Ridley move the line, though they’re obviously hedging quite strongly with all the conditions placed on the trade. And if Ridley can get into a better space than he was the last time we saw him, and if the NFL isn’t shocked, shocked, to find gambling going on in this establishment, then there’s no limit to the added vig Ridley could provide to Trevor Lawrence and company—we’ll be out there, once again calling them sneaky favorites, despite them finishing the 2022 season with, say, a 4-13 record. If there’s one thing Trent Baalke knows, it’s how to derive great pleasure from the delayed prospects of a new acquisition unable to immediately help the team!

Really, it’s very similar to the Claypool trade for Chicago, only Ridley has a much stronger track record, was acquired for significantly less resources, and is being put into a better-designed offense with more weapons around him. Other than that, the two deals are nearly identical.

It’s April 13, and the Houston Texans are inking Brandin Cooks to a two-year, $40-million extension, nearly all of it guaranteed. Cooks refers to the new deal as a blessing, saying that he believes in what the organization is trying to get done and what they are building.

It’s August 1, and Aaron Rodgers is amid a gaggle of reporters at Packers training camp. He’s talking up Allen Lazard stepping into the No. 1 role, marveling at Romeo Doubs, and predicting a “seamless” transition in the post-Davante Adams era.

It’s April 28, and Sean McVay and Les Snead are joking at the Rams’ post-first round draft press conference. Snead tells reporters that a few teams without first-round picks called the Rams to ask for advice on what to do on Thursday night, since Los Angeles has so much experience in this field. His answer? Rent a really, really, really cool house in the Hollywood Hills. Everyone laughs.

It’s 1:30 in the afternoon on November 1. Aaron Rodgers is live on his segment on the Pat McAfee show, saying that he hoped that there would be breaking news to talk about while they were on the air. Breaking news does not come. Rodgers looks tired of Earth. These people. Tired of being caught in the tangle of the Packers’ receiver corps.

It’s 8:40 in the morning. Albert Breer is reporting that the Rams have offered two first-round picks to the Carolina Panthers for Brian Burns. They are the 2024 and 2025 first-round picks, as the Rams do not have their 2023 first-round pick due to the Matthew Stafford trade. The Panthers decline.

It’s 2:15 in the afternoon. Lovie Smith is on the podium in front of Houston media, insisting that Brandin Cooks is going nowhere, and that he was excused from practice for personal reasons. Cooks spends the afternoon liking trade rumors on a multitude of social media platforms. As the trade deadline passes, he tweets out cryptic statements. He then skips Wednesday’s practice, and will reportedly miss Thursday Night Football.

Honestly? Even with the big names being sent back and forth, the biggest news of the trade deadline might be the moves that didn’t happen. The Rams running out of ammunition after years of trading away picks. The Packers being outmaneuvered for receiving threats by the Bears (Claypool), Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), Chiefs (Kadarius Toney), and Broncos (not trading Jerry Jeudy). The Buccaneers adding nobody. It was a good day for the teams in the wild-card race in the NFC—the West runner-up between the 49ers and Seahawks, and the three non-Eagles NFC East teams. Los Angeles, Tampa Bay and Green Bay currently sit ninth through 11th in the NFC playoff race, and did nothing to improve themselves. It’s not quite a white flag for anyone involved, but all three teams need some sort of shakeup if they want to fix their seasons. The Buccaneers seem happy to stay the course and hope for internal improvements, but the Rams and Packers tried—or at least, want us to believe they tried. And while the Eagles, Vikings, and 49ers all made moves to make themselves better in the short term, those three preseason favorites are just watching things get further and further away.

The Cowboys, too, made a move—adding Jonathan Hankins last week—but they reportedly wanted to make a bigger splash. They were in talks with the Texans for Cooks, per Ed Werder. And those talks went literally down to the final minute, even while Lovie Smith was standing up and declaring nothing was happening. The sticking point? The $18 million guaranteed in Cooks’ contract in 2023, stemming from the extension he signed back in April. The Texans reportedly refused to eat any of that money, and so the Cowboys walked away. Sometimes, the best moves are the ones a team doesn’t make. But now the Texans have a superstar player sitting down, away from the team, with the future of a once-promising piece of the offense very much in doubt.

… what year is it again? I’m getting lost.

It’s early Thursday morning, and I’m editing this article before it goes live.

Is this the new normal? Are we going to have active trade deadline stories every year from now on? Is the era of stockpiling draft picks going to be over, the era of prudence and conservatism tossed out the window? Will fans of bad teams have to get used to their big names leaving. Will fans of good teams have to get used to not paying attention during the first round of the draft?

Man, I hope so. For as crazy as the news breaking all of Tuesday was, it was one of the most fascinating and legitimately league-altering days in recent memory. NFL fans finally get to experience what NBA, NHL, and MLB fans get to experience on a yearly basis; the league re-shuffling itself as it quickly determines the haves and have-nots. It’s wonderful to have so much news to talk about that we can go this far into an article without even mentioning, say, Nyheim Hines in Buffalo or William Jackson in Pittsburgh. There should be enough out there that things fall through the cracks! As a fan, it’s exciting to see teams go all-in—and as a writer, I’m eagerly awaiting the ones that flop, as not everyone can win a Super Bowl every year.

Forget much ado about nothing. If the Rams really have broken the mold, and the next decade is going to see teams dashing up and down, making moves that will echo and reverberate for years to come? Yes, yes please. The world is far more interesting when teams are actively doing things, rather than sitting on their hands.

An active trading deadline? That’s a fun thing to watch, man.

It’s Thursday evening, and somewhere in Northampton, Alan Moore is getting upset. Again. Ah, well, some things never change.



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