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Everything Everywhere Fails for Cowboys All at Once

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NFL Week 18 – There are bad ways to enter the playoffs, and then there is whatever the Dallas Cowboys just did this past Sunday.

Coming into Week 18, the Cowboys still had something to play for. With the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings playing during Dallas’ timeslot and the San Francisco 49ers not playing until the late window, the Cowboys came into the final week of the season looking to actually compete. A win and an Eagles loss would secure the NFC East for the Cowboys. Any subsequent losses by San Francisco and Minnesota would push Dallas higher in seeding. While they could finish no lower than the five seed in the playoffs, a Cowboys win and some help could push Dallas as high as the top seed.

Not only could the Cowboys not hold up their end of the bargain, but they ended their season with one of their worst losses of the year.

It’s not that the Cowboys had their worst single-game performance as a rushing team or a passing team. This did not set any new lows in offensive or defensive DVOA. But everything that generally could have gone wrong for the Cowboys went wrong, at least from a play-by-play perspective.

The day started off as a special teams nightmare. On the very first drive of the game, punter Bryan Anger mishandled the snap and aborted the punt, taking a 13-yard loss instead of attempting to get the kick off. Two plays later, Washington rookie Sam Howell connected with Terry McLaurin for Howell’s first career NFL touchdown. About three in-game minutes later, KaVontae Turpin muffed and lost a punt for the second time this season. Despite the miscues digging a hole for Dallas early, Washington refused to run away with the game. The recovery off that muffed Turpin punt resulted in zero points after Washington missed a field goal attempt.

This should not be a long write-up for Dallas. Frankly, not a lot happened for the Cowboys on Sunday. Dallas ran 15 drives of offense against the Commanders. On 11 of those drives, Dallas lined up for a punt (this includes the aforementioned mishandled punt). Of those 11 punts, TEN came after three-and-outs. That is a startling lack of ball movement. The 182 total yards by Dallas Sunday is the seventh-fewest yards posted in a game this season, according to Stathead. They just barely edged out the Minnesota Vikings for the fewest yards gained in a game by a playoff-bound team. Ironically, the Vikings’ 183-yard performance that put them on this list came against the Cowboys in Week 11.

The Cowboys offense fell into a non-competitive rhythm most of the game. Despite the inability to run the ball, Dallas decided to rush on first-and-10 on four of their first five drives. Given their 16% success rate on rushing attempts Sunday, that usually resulted in a second-and-long situation. A third-and-long typically followed. By then, the Commanders defense was able to drop back into coverage and keep Prescott reading long enough for things to dissolve.

The run game was a non-factor for most of the afternoon. The longest rush of the afternoon came on a nine-yard Prescott scramble. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott both finished with under 20 yards on the day. This is the first time that both Pollard and Elliott rushed for less than 20 yards on at least five carries in the same game. The interior of the line was pretty much locked up by Washington all afternoon, with Dallas unable to hold their blocks or maintain gaps. In the Commanders’ defense, though, Washington’s defense was great in their run fits and pursuit. Dallas’ central counter was bouncing run plays all the way outside, but the Commanders eventually snuffed those out as well.

This may have been the worst game of Dak Prescott’s career, at least statistically speaking. His 14 completions on 37 passes resulted in a career-low 37.8% completion percentage and came on a career-low 3.46 yards per attempt. The 14.8 QBR from this guy was a half-point shy of a new low for Prescott, and the lone touchdown pass helped to only make it the second-worst offensive passing DVOA for the Cowboys this season.

Prescott throw chart

Prescott’s throw chart from this game is fascinating. Nearly every completed pass is condensed within ten yards of the field between the hashes. The only passes Prescott was able to complete were quick concepts based on timing. Even then, there were stretches where Prescott was just wholly unable to hit receivers on routine stuff. (See clip below.)

The inverse is true too, though. There were moments where Prescott was on, and his receivers looked totally out of sync. T.Y. Hilton was tagged with two drops in this game, including one on one of Prescott’s deepest passes of the afternoon. CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz were assigned a drop each as well. Washington has improved as a defense over the course of the season, sure. Their performance in Week 18 was enough to propel themselves into the top 10 in season-long defensive DVOA. But this really felt like a night where nothing was clicking at all. Receivers could not create separation against Washington. Prescott could not hit the same tight windows he typically throws into. But the Cowboys did not do themselves any favors on the play-calling front, either. Scheme-wise, it was one of the worse-called games for the Cowboys offense this season.

The worst of it showed on the pick-six. There were some offensive sequences that were frustrating, but none embodied just how checked-ut the Cowboys looked after a certain point of this game. Second-and-long, Prescott gets flushed out of the pocket and nearly throws a pick to Kendall Fuller. Third-and-long, Dallas trots out the same personnel. Prescott quickly targets the exact same area of the field, and Fuller reads it to intercept and take it back to the house.

Washington deserves more praise than they will end up receiving from this piece. With playoffs on the horizon, it is more pressing to highlight the already-clinched team who lost in baffling fashion than the eliminated team who delivered the beat-down. The Commanders front seven looked dominant against the Cowboys offensive line; Chase Young looked solid in just his third appearance of the season. Washington also posted by far their best game as a pass coverage unit this season, completely locking up the Cowboys and holding Prescott to a sub-40% completion rating. According to Stathead, Prescott posted the only stat line of the season with a sub-40% completion percentage and at least 30 passes. No defense has forced a statline like that since Pittsburgh in 2018.

Sam Howell looked very serviceable in his first pro appearance since the preseason. Washington did not ask him to do much, but he executed in the limited role allocated for him. He certainly is not good enough to dissuade Washington from exploring quarterbacks this offseason, but it is reassuring to know that the team has a player who showed a good base level of play.

The Commanders had nothing to play for other than pride. They hosted a team that should have been hell-bent on winning that Sunday, then stonewalled them in most phases of the game. Washington continues to be a team in transition, but closing out the season with the embodiment of a team win should give the Commanders optimism heading into the offseason.

As for Dallas…

By the DVOA

DVOA OFF DEF ST TOT
DAL -42.4% -7.3% -18.1% -53.2%
WAS -6.7% -53.4% -7.6% 39.1%
VOA OFF DEF ST TOT
DAL -47.5% -20.4% -18.1% -45.3%
WAS -21.2% -50.6% -7.6% 21.8%

As stated at the beginning of the piece, this game just barely falls short of being Dallas’ worst of the season. That honor would go to the Cowboys’ first game of the season against upcoming wild card opponent Tampa Bay. However, Dallas did post a season-low in offensive rushing DVOA and had their worst game by special teams DVOA since Week 5 of 2019.

Washington, on the other hand, really ends the year on a high note. The Commanders set season highs for total DVOA, defensive DVOA, and defensive passing DVOA.

While the frequent three-and-outs by Dallas seemed anomalous, it is actually a pretty common result for Dallas’ offense. The Cowboys go three-and-out on 24.2% of drives, ranking 22nd in the league.

Reaping What You Sow

There is a reason why each of Dallas’ three losses since their Week 9 bye has ended up in the Any Given Sunday column. Part of that comes from the circumstance of a given week. If there were more impactful upsets, or if bigger underdogs by spread won their games, we would feature them over another loss by the Cowboys.

Most of the reason, however, is that the Cowboys keep finding ways to get upset by lesser opponents and fail to adjust. Most of the same explanations for the Cowboys’ demise can be found in their last two Any Given Sunday write-ups. Prescott threw some back-breaking interceptions against both Green Bay and Jacksonville. Penalties have been a problem all season. Wide receivers continue to struggle separating from defensive backs. It all just happened at once on Sunday. Factor in some major special teams miscues, and it was a perfect storm for a loss.

This is different than the other Any Given Sunday articles, though. The other two write-ups closed with something along the lines of, “Dallas better fix X and Y, because if they don’t then they will come to rue it at some point.” There is no “some point” anymore. The clock has struck midnight. The chickens have come home to roost. The regular season is over. It is time to reap the fruits of your foul-ups.

There are some things that cannot be helped at this point of the season. The loss of Terence Steele to injury means Tyron Smith has to play right tackle, a position he has not played in over a decade. That role will not get any easier come playoff time. Dallas also already knows it lacks true receiving talent beyond Lamb. Gallup is a nice secondary piece, and T.Y. Hilton has been a serviceable depth piece off the street, but none of the Cowboys receivers can really create any separation from opposing defensive backs on routes. That is an offseason fix; there is nothing anyone can do about it now.

Dallas enters Super Wild-Card Weekend as a slight road favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They would probably be heavier favorites coming into this game had they not just put this performance on. Their last three games, the Cowboys have posted negative defensive DVOAs, but they have come against Gardner Minshew, Josh Dobbs, and Sam Howell. Not quite the same competition as Tom Brady. Tampa Bay is getting healthier, with left tackle Donovan Smith, cornerback Carlton Davis, and defensive tackle Vita Vea all likely available for Monday’s game. For an 8-9 team, Tampa Bay is very formidable. If Dallas cannot iron out the simple stuff, they are very much in jeopardy of losing as favorites.

The Dallas Cowboys have not made it past the divisional round since 1995. Another performance even close to this one will keep that streak active. The thing is, this is a Cowboys team that, at its best, can be the most competitive wild card team on either side of the bracket. Prescott can still make throws like the one above. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are still a dynamic running back duo, and the Cowboys may have Tyler Biadasz back at center to mitigate some of the poor interior run blocking. The defense is still great. There should be no shame in allowing 20 points when the offense kept handing over short fields. The offense is capable of so much more than it contributed on Sunday. At its best, this is a Cowboys team that can compete with any team still standing. At its worst, Dallas could fall short and squander a major opportunity to break a 28-year cold streak.



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