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Saturday Divisional Liveblog: Jaguars Look to Upset Chiefs

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NFL Divisional – The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Welcome to the Divisional Playoffs!

After a Wild Card round filled with comebacks and surprisingly close games, all eight teams remaining standing have proven they belong on this stage. We have eight of the top nine teams in weighted offensive DVOA still playing (sorry, Detroit), and no one with a negative overall weighted DVOA. That’s not to say there aren’t gradients of quality here, but every team still standing has at least a 1.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl, by our playoff odds. Would it be surprising if the Jaguars or Giants ended up holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of all things? Sure. But at this point, nothing would be truly shocking.

To get there, though, both Jacksonville and New York have to get through the top seeds today. Both the Chiefs and Eagles are rested and ready to get their own playoffs started; the top seeds in both conferences looking to prove that they earned them. Can either underdog overcome the triple threat of home field advantage, a bye week and generally being less successful than their top-seeded opponents? The favorites are favorites for a reason, but it was just last year when both #1 seeds fell in the divisional round. Could Jalen Hurts’ busted wing and Kansas City’s tendency to play with their food come back to haunt them? We’ll find out shortly.

And we’ll be covering today’s matchups live in a special Saturday edition of the Football Outsiders liveblog Bcause we’re live, you can participate in the discussion as well! Join in on the conversation — either in the comment section in this article, on Twitter by tagging @FBOutsiders or @BryKno, or on our brand new Discord server, where some of your favorite writers will be hanging out and reacting live.

This should be good.

Early Game Preview: Jaguars at Chiefs

Andy Reid has never lost to one if his former assistants in the postseason. He beat Brad Childress in 2008, and then knocked off Sean McDermott in 2020 and 2021. Now it’s Doug Pederson’s turn to try to stop Reid, riding the momentum from the incredible comeback win over the Chargers into an upset in Arrowhead Stadium.

It’s a tall order, for sure. The Chiefs are the cream of the current NFL; the most regular of contenders. They’ve reached the AFC Championship in each of the past four seasons, winning a Super Bowl and competing in another along the way. Meanwhile, this is just the Jaguars’ second playoff berth since 2008; there may be a slight gap in experience here.  And, of course, the Chiefs beat the Jaguars earlier this season; Patrick Mahomes throwing four touchdown passes on route to a 27-17 victory. But as Rivers McCown points out in our stats preview, the Jaguars did stage a mini-comeback from down 20-0 in that one; an unsuccessful precursor to the Chargers comeback?

With the threat of snow coming down at Arrowhead, and the always-loud Chiefs fans ready to surprise Trevor Lawrence, the underdogs have a tall task laid out in front of them as 9.5-point underdogs. But hey, we all learned not to count them out last week, right?

Late Game Preview: Giants at Eagles

How healthy is Jalen Hurts, really?

Hurts suffered a sprained shoulder in Week 15 against Chicago. He came back in the season finale, but put up his worst passing DVOA of the year, -35.5%, against a Giants team that was resting most of it’s starters. Oh, the Eagles still won, mind you, but the Eagles team that earned the #1 seed; the Eagles team that was top in DVOA through the first 15 weeks of the season? That requires Hurts playing like he did for the first three months of the season. The extra week off is bound to have helped, but we saw almost none of the RPO and designed run game we were used to seeing from Philadelphia during Hurts’ last outing, as the Eagles played it very safe with him. We’ll find out very quickly just what shape Hurts is in this week.

And if the Eagles are in full form? Well, as Vince Verhei puts it in our game preview, “overachieving seasons usually end in brutal fashion in the postseason”. The Eagles were the better team throughout the season in nearly every way these things can be measured; that’s why Philadelphia are 7.5-point favorites. That being said, the Giants have something of a history of big postseason upsets, don’t they? Brian Daboll and company are playing with house money, and a strong day on the ground behind Saquon Barkley could see them shock the world once again.

3:49 PM: Snow Game?  Snow Game!

It’s not sticking yet, but we have some pretty significant (and wet) snow falling at Arrowhead.

I don’t think it’s full-on, flashing warning lights and siren SNOW GAME alert at his point in time; it’s a little too warm to get clobbered.  But weather games are always fun to watch.

And who knows? Maybe a classic game in the snow will help the NFL reconsider the rumored plans to move all conference championship games to neutral sites…

4:45 PM: Travis Kelce May Be A Problem

The Jaguars have a 37.7% pass defense DVOA against tight ends. That may end up being an issue against Travis Kelce, who is, in fact, pretty good at this whole ‘football’ thing.

Kelce had four catches for 35 yards and the touchdown on the Chiefs’ opening drive, and the Jaguars do not look like they have an immediate answer to the big man.

Also on this drive: a speed option, a side-arm pass, and a jump pass from Mahomes.  It’s just kind of unfair that Mahomes can make anything work at any time; he’s just on an entirely different level from anyone else.  Add in the Jaguars going three-and-out on their first drive, and the Jags find themselves in a tough spot.  It’s only 7-0, but some first touchdowns are more demoralizing than others…

4:53 PM: Not So Fast, Kansas City!

The one area where Jacksonville may have an advantage is on special teams, and Jamal Agnew gets Jacksonville off the turf with a 63-yard return on the ensuing kickoff. Jacksonville needs to squeeze every drop out of these sort of small windows where they have an advantage if they’re going to keep up with the Kansas City offense.

With the ball in Kansas City territory, the Jags then start moving. It’s a little conservative; some dinks and dunks and runs, but it ends up being effective against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t always been particularly tough this year.  On the eventual touchdown, Doug Pederson schemes things up so Christian Kirk gets covered by George Karlaftis, and that’s not a matchup Karlaftis is going to win.

We’re knotted at seven.  Game on.

5:04 PM: Patrick Mahomes Injured

This entire game has just changed. Mahomes got rolled up on on a sack, and is in clear and obvious pain.  He’s refusing to come out of the game, but he’s limping, skipping, and generally not walking right — he barely managed to get the ball out on a stretch run play.  The quarter has ended, and he’s come to the sideline to get things looked at, but this could be a huge, huge moment in this one.

Chad Henne is the backup, should it come to that.

Mahomes came back in to start the second quarter, and moved around a little better, but the offensive momentum stalled immediately, and Kansas City settled for a field goal.  10-7 Chiefs, but that’s not the focus at the moment.





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