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The Justin Fields Paradox and the Sean Payton Gambit

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NFL Super Bowl – MOBILE, ALABAMA — Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy does not sound like someone eager to trade Justin Fields to the highest bidder.

“I have great confidence in Justin,” said Getsy, who is coaching one of the squads at the Senior Bowl college all-star game. “I just saw the growth that he had from a year ago to where he is now.”

Getsy acknowledged that Fields has a long way to go, but the coach said that he was most impressed with Fields’ growth as a leader. “He came out of his shell and really took command of the team. His confidence grew, and all that stuff that’s important in terms of taking a team where you want to go.”

“He put the team on his back for a few weeks there, and showed that he was really able to do it.”

Getsy no-doubt came to Mobile braced to answer Fields questions: trade speculation surrounding the Bears quarterback — and the first-overall pick in the 2023 draft, which the Bears possess — will be a favorite rumor-mill league topic for the next two months.

Getsy is also three rungs on the org chart removed from making any hard decisions about Fields: major trades are the purview of coach Matt Eberflus, general manager Ryan Poles and new team CEO Kevin Warren, representing the interests of the McCaskey ownership family. A lowly coordinator must toe the company line when discussing potential blockbuster trades.

But this is the era when team websites and social media accounts feel free to take sideswipes at their own quarterbacks, so Getsy’s endorsement was much more enlightening than the “I’m only here to talk Senior Bowl” type of no-comment that he could have delivered.

Furthermore, even if Getsy and the Bears want to trade Fields, they have probably figured out by now that it’s a terrible idea.

Fields presents the Bears with an almost subatomic paradox: the very act of trading him lowers his trade value. The Bears’ potential suitors are not the Madden AI: they will immediately question why the Bears are willing to part with a talented, low-salaried quarterback. If the woeful Bears are eager to restart the rookie quarterback cycle instead of committing to Fields, why should some other team commit to him? The Bears would be lucky to get Sam Darnold-level compensation — second-and-fourth round picks in 2024, plus change — in exchange for Fields, because the Bears (like the Jets with Darnold) are tipping their hands through their sheer desire to move on.

There’s also the catastrophic failure scenario: the Bears trade Fields and he blossoms, while the Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or (punch me into the sun) Will Levis they choose with top pick goes bust. Every team that trades a young quarterback faces this possibility, which is why coaches and general managers usually wait to make sure that the former prospect fails as thoroughly as possible before moving on. 

Fields has not failed thoroughly enough; he’s downright historic as a rusher, and his miserable passing DVOA over his first two seasons comes with some obvious caveats about what may have been the league’s worst supporting cast.

Fields doesn’t need a Josh Allen leap to leave Poles with career-defining egg on his face: if he were to scramble some other rebuilding team to a wild-card berth in 2023 by just becoming slightly more efficient as a passer — think Daniel Jones — Bears fans and the Magnificent McCaskeys alike would wonder why they were forced to start over again.

Word on the streets here at the Senior Bowl is that the Bears will wait on offers for the first overall pick — the hot stove league won’t heat up until next month’s scouting combine — and use 2023 as Fields’ make-or-break year. There are no quarterbacks of note for Getsy to scout here in Mobile, but there are plenty of receivers, linemen and running backs (more on the prospects themselves later in the week) to gobble up in middle rounds so Fields doesn’t spend another year in a bullet-hell video-game level. If Fields does not improve as a passer, Poles and Eberflus can part ways with him from a safer harbor in 2024. If he succeeds, hooray! If the jury is still out, trade suitors will at least be less likely to lowball a less-motivated seller. 

Success or failure will start with the Bears building even a serviceable playmaker corps and offensive line. “I think that’s the biggest question mark: Who do we have?” Getsy said. “It all gets put on Justin, and it involves Justin. But it involves all eleven. So we’ve gotta figure out who those eleven are gonna be.”

Whether they trade the first overall pick or Fields, the next move belongs to the Bears. So don’t assume that common sense will automatically prevail. 

Notes On the Sean Payton/Denver Broncos Marriage

Walkthrough discussed the Denver Broncos’ hiring of Sean Payton as their head coach when it looked like a done deal two weeks ago. There were then some snags — apparently the Walmart ownership group is, well, a WALMART ownership group — but all is well that end’s well. So here are some final thoughts on the blockbuster trade/hiring.

The New Orleans Saints are the big winners. A first-round pick in 2023, plus change, will improve Mickey Loomis’ chances of turning the Saints Cap Apocalypse into merely a Cap Series of Mediocre and Meandering Seasons. Loomis will still be drafting over the next two years to replace departing or aging players on a roster that couldn’t compete in the NFL’s worst division in 2022, but that’s far better than NOT being able to add cheap potential impact players because the Eagles have all your draft picks.

The Saints could be relevant again by 2025; sooner if Loomis actually swallows his cap medicine instead of opening up even more credit card accounts to pay off his credit cards.

Remember Mike Shanahan in Washington?  Papa Shanahan took over the Washington football team in 2011, and they traded for Donovan McNabb soon after; how much input Shanahan had over the acquisition immediately became a matter of much speculation.

The Shanahan/McNabb era was brief and bonkers, with Shanahan benching and publicly ripping McNabb and the team giving the quarterback a $78-million “financial apology” extension just a few weeks later. There was an obvious power struggle afoot between Shanahan and then-new general manager Bruce Allen, and Shanahan excelled at power struggles. McNabb was traded away before the 2011 season, and Shanahan noodled with Rex Grossman and the legendary John Beck for a year just to prove that he could before unleashing the Robert Griffin/Kirk Cousins saga upon an unsuspecting multiverse.

There are obvious parallels in Denver: a franchise quarterback crumbling like a vampire once removed from the soil of his ancestral land, an ownership group seeking a solution and legitimacy at the same time, a big-name coach who enjoys throwing his weight around. In case it wasn’t obvious: buckle up for a bumpy ride. 

Bottom Line. Payton will either use his prestige and power to build a bridge between Team Walmart and Planet Russ or become one more powerful faction in a very complicated and violent MMORPG. The latter is more likely, but Mike Kafka or Shane Steichen would merely have been ground into powder by the tectonic plates on either side rubbing against each other.

The only way out for the Broncos right now is through. If he cannot succeed, Payton should at least bring about a very compelling and dramatically satisfying disaster.

Around the League

We wrap with a quick spin on the news cycle.

Tom Brady retires, probably for real.

RIP to the Pro Football Talk offseason engagement model of linking Brady four teams per week for eight consecutive weeks through the sheer power of speculation and wishcasting. Wait … that was Walkthrough’s engagement model, too! 

Houston Texans hire DeMeco Ryans to a six-year contract as their head coach.

Congratulations to the Texans for acting like a professional NFL organization, not some combination brainwashing cult/sheriff’s auction, for the first time in about three years.

Los Angeles Chargers hire Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator

Moore will get Justin Herbert to fully unlock his stratospheric potential and silence any doubts that quarterback may be a little bit overhyped, just as he did for Dak Prescott. 

Tyler Huntley named to Pro Bowl roster.

Now that it’s a flag football game, they are selecting the players best suited to flag football. Never play four-dimensional chess with a Manning brother.

NFL announces that the 2023 salary cap will rise to $224.8 million, on the high end of expectations.

Great news: the Vikings won’t have to cut as many of their over-the-hill defenders! Awful news: the Vikings won’t have to cut as many of their over-the-hill defenders!

Franchise tag figures released.

Waiting and seeing for one year on Geno Smith, Daniel Jones and (yes) gimpy/grumpy Lamar Jackson will cost around $30 million. Overpaying any of them could cost four to five years of headaches, and probably a job or two. 

Brock Purdy to miss six offseason months with an elbow injury.

He’s on pace to return just after Trey Lance’s first three-interception 7-on-7 drill.

Trevor Lawrence plans to “make his voice heard” about the Jaguars’ offensive direction.

Tired: Lawrence getting a job at Baskin Robbins to make sure Doug Pederson hears what he has to say. Wired: Lawrence downloaded the Rosetta Stone “Learn to Speak Baalke” app. 

New Panthers head coach Frank Reich discusses his quarterback philosophy.

“I’ve had to work with the young, the old, the pocket passer, the guy who moves,” Reich said, via Darin Gantt of the team’s website. And let’s not forget the tired, the poor and the huddled Wentzes yearning to set the football free. 

Later This Week: The Running Backs are Coming! The Running Backs are Coming! A Senior Bowl scouting notebook. 



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