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Eagles, 49ers Shine in Football Outsiders Awards

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NFL Offseason – Welcome to the results of the 20th annual Football Outsiders Awards—the best and worst players of the year, as voted on by you, our readers. For those curious about the FO Award winners in past years, you will find links to each of the previous FO Awards articles on this page. Last year’s awards, specifically, are found here.

Who is the 2022 NFL MVP? (Last year’s winner: Aaron Rodgers, GB)

77.7% Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
12.5% Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
3.9% Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
2.9% Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
2.3% Josh Allen, QB, BUF
0.8% Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA

The Chiefs traded away Patrick Mahomes’ best wide receiver and he responded by leading the NFL in passing yards, passing touchdowns, QBR, and DYAR, setting a career high in completion rate just to show off. Kansas City went 14-3, losing three games by a combined 10 points, and won a division title and the top seed in the AFC before going on to win the Super Bowl. Mahomes dominated our MVP voting, beating the field by a margin of 3-to-1. Jalen Hurts might have finished a little closer if he had not missed two games, but would certainly have still finished a distant second.

Who is the 2022 Offensive Player of the Year (Non-QB)? (Last year’s winner: Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR)

59.1% Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
13.3% Travis Kelce, TE, KC
9.8% Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
9.2% Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR/SF
3.5% A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
3.3% Josh Jacobs, RB, LV
1.0% Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
0.8% Nick Chubb, RB, CLE

In his third season, Jefferson caught 128 passes for 1,809 yards, both among the 10 highest single-season totals in league history. He set franchise records in both categories, and keep in mind that the Minnesota Vikings have employed Randy Moss, Cris Carter, and Stefon Diggs, among others. His 489 receiving DYAR were first in the league and most for Minnesota since Moss went over 500 in 2003. And he did all of that catching passes from Kirk Cousins, who I assume you’re familiar with. Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes’ top target, finished second; Tyreek Hill, Mahomes’ former top target, finished third.

Who is the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year? (Last year’s winner: T.J. Watt, OLB, PIT)

44.9% Nick Bosa, DE, SF
16.5% Micah Parsons, OLB, DAL
15.2% Chris Jones, DT, KC
11.1% Haason Reddick, OLB, PHI
3.3% Ahmad Gardner, CB, NYJ
2.3% Maxx Crosby, DE, LV
2.1% Myles Garrett, DE, CLE
1.9% Matthew Judon, OLB, NE
1.6% Roquan Smith, ILB, CHI/BAL
1.2% Patrick Surtain, CB, DEN

The best player on the NFL’s best defense, Nick Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks and finished second with 19 tackles for loss despite missing a game against Atlanta. According to Pro Football Reference, he also led the league with 28 quarterback knockdowns, and his combined total of 56 sacks, knockdowns, and hurries were nine more than anyone else. Bosa is followed in our voting by Dallas’ Micah Parsons (one of 10 players last year with double-digit sacks and 60-plus tackles) and Kansas City’s Chris Jones (whose 15.5 sacks and 29 quarterback hits were more than double the totals of any of his teammates).

Who is the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year? (Last year’s winner: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN)

30.6% Brock Purdy, QB, SF
20.7% Chris Olave, WR, NO
19.3% Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
12.3% Kenneth Walker, RB, SEA
4.9% Tyler Linderbaum, C, BAL
4.9% Christian Watson, WR, GB
3.7% Kenny Pickett, QB, PIT
3.5% Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL

Here’s our first award where the Football Outsiders readers had a different opinion than the Associated Press voters. This outcome would have seemed impossible as recently as Thanksgiving. At that point, Purdy was still living up to the title of Mr. Irrelevant, a little-used rookie with more interceptions thrown (one) than games started (zero). Then Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt and Purdy caught absolute fire down the stretch, with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions in San Francisco’s six games, each of them a 49ers win. Purdy didn’t even qualify for our passing tables, but if he had, he would have made the top five in DVOA. His 397 DYAR were most by a non-qualifier since … Jimmy Garoppolo had 598 in 2017.

If you prefer full-season stars, you were left with a very narrow race between two wide receivers out of Ohio State. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson put up similar basic statlines (72-1,042-4 for Olave, 83-1,103-4 for Wilson), but Olave fared significantly better in our advanced stats, giving him a very slim edge in the voting.

Who is the 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year? (Last year’s winner: Micah Parsons, LB, DAL)

73.5% Ahmad Gardner, CB, NYJ
14.9% Aidan Hutchinson, DE, DET
6.2% Tariq Woolen, CB, SEA
2.9% Kayvon Thibodeaux, OLB, NYG
1.2% Jaquan Brisker, SS, CHI
0.8% Devin Lloyd, ILB, JAX
0.4% Kader Kohou, CB, MIA
 

This one was never really in doubt. Sauce Gardner led the NFL with 20 passes defensed. Per PFR, his 5.3 yards allowed per target put him among the 10 best corners in the league. He’s the biggest reason the Jets allowed a league-low 42.5 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. A first-team All-Pro, Gardner may have been the NFL’s best corner in 2022, veterans included.

In Detroit, Aidan Hutchinson led all rookies with 9.5 sacks. Seattle, meanwhile, found a steal in the fifth round of the draft in Texas-San Antonio corner Tariq Woolen, who led the NFL with six interceptions and had some charting numbers that were even better than Gardner’s albeit in a different role.

Who is the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year? (Last year’s winner: Joe Burrow, QB, CIN)

57.3% Geno Smith, QB, SEA
16.6% Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR/SF
15.2% Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
8.4% Brandon Graham, DE, PHI
1.4% Nick Gates, G, NYG
1.0% Za’Darius Smith, OLB, MIN

As someone who frequently asked what Geno Smith was supposedly coming back from in 2022, I will now note that the official rules of the award state that the winner will be someone who “shows perseverance in overcoming adversity, in the form of not being in the NFL the previous year, a severe injury, or simply poor performance” (emphasis added). In that case, Smith certainly qualifies—in the first nine years of his career, he had won only 13 games as a starter, with more interceptions (37) than touchdowns (34). That changed in a big way in 2022 as Smith led the NFL with a 69.8% completion rate and finished eighth or higher in completions, yards, and touchdowns. That was enough to put him over a pair of oft-injured running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley) whose total yards from scrimmage jumped from 1,641 in 2021 to 3,530 in 2022.

Who was the best offensive lineman of 2022? (Last year’s winner: Trent Williams, SF)

33.9% Jason Kelce, C, PHI
24.2% Trent Williams, LT, SF
18.0% Lane Johnson, RT, PHI
7.4% Creed Humphrey, C, KC
5.1% Penei Sewell, RT, DET
2.5% Andrew Thomas, LT, NYG
2.3% Zack Martin, RG, DAL
1.9% Christian Darrisaw, LT, MIN
1.9% Laremy Tunsil, LT, HOU
1.3% Terron Armstead, LT, MIA

Last March, Jason Kelce poured himself a beer and announced that he was not retiring from the NFL. He proceeded to enjoy one of his best seasons, earning his fifth first-team All-Pro selection for an Eagles team that ranked fourth in the league in adjusted line yards on carries between the tackles.

Kelce was followed in the voting by Trent Williams, last year’s winner, and his teammate Lane Johnson. That Philadelphia offensive line was a strong unit, deserving of its own recognition. (Experienced readers will recognize this as a literary device known as “foreshadowing.” It can be dangerous in the wrong hands and is best left to professionals.)

Note that this year we changed this award from an “open field” asking for two names to a multiple choice question.

Who was the most improved player of 2022? (Last year’s winner: Joe Burrow, CIN)

36.6% Geno Smith, SEA
12.7% Jalen Hurts, PHI
11.3% Trevor Lawrence, JAX
7.7% Daniel Jones, NYG
3.5% Justin Fields, CHI
2.8% Jared Goff, DET
2.8% Josh Jacobs, LV
2.8% Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

We already discussed Smith, so let’s address Jalen Hurts, who ranked 17th in both DYAR and DVOA in 2021 before improving to 10th in both categories in 2022. He gained three more rushing touchdowns and six more passing touchdowns than he had the year before, while throwing three fewer interceptions. And in Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence finished bottom-six in both DYAR and DVOA as a rookie, but top-seven in both as a sophomore, doubling his touchdown passes (literally) and cutting his interception totals in half (also literally).

What is your choice for Unit of the Year in 2022? (Last year’s winner: Los Angeles Rams defensive line)

52.2% PHI offensive line
15.4% MIA wide receivers
12.9% SF linebackers
11.5% CIN wide receivers
3.3% KC offensive line
2.1% NE defensive backs
1.2% NYJ defensive line
0.8% TEN defensive line

The Eagles were first by a healthy margin in rushing DVOA, and keep in mind that’s not including Jalen Hurts scrambles (though it does include sneaks and options and other designed quarterback runs). They ran for 32 touchdowns, eight more than anyone else, finishing second in first downs and fifth in yardage gained. Hurts finished fifth at his position in rushing DYAR while Miles Sanders finished third in his, and Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott had their moments in the sun as well. When that many players are that effective rushing the ball, you know they’re getting help from the big boys up front.

In Miami, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill finished third and fourth in DYAR despite a revolving door at quarterback. And in San Francisco, Dre Geenlaw and Fred Warner helped the 49ers finish first in defensive DVOA, second against the run, and first by a mile on passes to opposing running backs.

Who is 2022 NFL Head Coach of the Year? (Last year’s winner: Mike Vrabel, TEN)

27.8% Brian Daboll, NYG
17.2% Kyle Shanahan, SF
14.5% Nick Sirianni, PHI
12.7% Doug Pederson, JAX
8.0% Dan Campbell, DET
6.7% Andy Reid, KC
5.3% Pete Carroll, SEA
3.3% Mike Tomlin, PIT

There were a lot of strong candidates for this award, and in the end it may have been decided by preseason expectations. You’ll recall that three FO writers picked the New York Giants to get the first pick in April’s draft, and we were hardly unique in in our pessimism. But first-year coach Brian Daboll took a New York team that had gone 4-13 in 2021 to a 9-7-1 mark in 2022, then added another win in the playoffs against Minnesota. Kyle Shanahan also got a lot of credit for getting San Francisco into the playoffs with a third-stringer at quarterback, while Nick Sirianni guided the Eagles to a 14-1 record in games when Jalen Hurts was healthy.

Who wins 2022 Bill Arnsparger Award for Coordinator of the Year? (Last year’s winner: Dan Quinn, DC, DAL)

35.9% DeMeco Ryans, DC, SF
20.7% Lou Anarumo, DC, CIN
12.1% Ben Johnson, OC, DET
8.2% Shane Steichen, OC, PHI
5.9% Ejiro Evero, DC, DEN
5.5% Mike Kafka, OC, NYG
5.3% Eric Bieniemy, OC, KC
4.9% Dan Quinn, DC, DAL

The 2022 San Francisco 49ers had the league’s best defensive player, the league’s best linebackers, and apparently the league’s best defensive coordinator. In DeMeco Ryans’ second season as coordinator, San Francisco allowed the fewest points and yards in the NFL while finishing second in takeaways. He is now the head coach of the Houston Texans, a franchise whose trophy case is not quite as impressive as the one in Santa Clara. In Cincinnati, Lou Anarumo continues to be a constant headache for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, while Detroit’s Ben Johnson cobbled together a bunch of spare parts and put together the league’s fifth-ranked offense.

Who wins 2022 Art Rooney Jr. Award for Executive of the Year? (Last year’s winner: Les Snead, LAR)

59.7% Howie Roseman, PHI
11.4% John Schneider, SEA
8.7% John Lynch, SF
8.1% Brett Veach, KC
4.8% Brad Holmes, DET
2.9% Chris Grier, MIA
2.7% Trent Baalke, JAX
1.9% Brandon Beane, BUF

Howie Roseman’s Eagles reached the Super Bowl, and their best receiver (A.J. Brown), pass-rusher (Haason Reddick), safety (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), and arguably even corner (James Bradberry) were all offseason acquisitions. That’s not even including rookies Jordan Davis (a run-stuffer who started five games) or Nakobe Dean and Kyron Johnson (two key special teams contributors). And then there’s Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, signed during the season to shore up the run defense, which they did. Did we mention that the Eagles are still in the middle of the pack in effective cap space? Or that Philadelphia has two first-round draft picks this year and two second-rounders next year? This Roseman kid, he knows what he’s doing.

In Seattle, John Schneider came out of the Russell Wilson trade smelling like roses and had a stellar draft class, with four draft picks earning starting roles as rookies and a fifth (cornerback Coby Bryant) who could be starting in 2023. And in San Francisco, John Lynch has put together one of the NFL’s deepest rosters, and he gets bonus points for finding Brock Purdy with the last pick in the draft.

Who is your choice for the 2022 Keep Choppin’ Wood Award (player who hurt his team most, on or off the field)? (Last year’s winner: Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU)

49.6% Russell Wilson, QB, DEN
32.7% Zach Wilson, QB, NYJ
10.1% Kyler Murray, QB, ARI
3.3% Matt Ryan, QB, IND
2.1% Robbie Anderson, WR, CAR/ARI
1.9% Kenny Golladay, WR, NYG

I’m just going to turn this over to Bryan Knowles who named Russell Wilson the quarterback of his All-Keep Choppin’ Wood team a few weeks ago:

Denver paid a king’s ransom for their new king—multiple first-round picks, multiple second-round picks, a solid defensive tackle in Shelby Harris, and some assorted spare parts thrown in mostly to make the list of assets acquired in Seattle comically long. They then turned around and signed Wilson to a five-year extension worth $245 million, with $165 million guaranteed, before he played a down for the franchise.

The numbers simultaneously speak for themselves and do not tell the whole story. Wilson’s -15.2% passing DVOA was 28th out of 34 qualifiers, and by a wide margin the worst in his career. Wilson set career lows in touchdown rate, completion percentage, QBR, and ANYA as well.

Bryan than went into more detail than we have room for here on Wilson’s bizarre behavior on and off the field. There’s also a trace of strangeness around the Jets’ Zach Wilson and Arizona’s Kyler Murray, who allegedly scored more in the bedroom and on the Xbox, respectively, than on the field. But you know what? Last year in this space, I was writing about Deshaun Watson, Antonio Brown, and Henry Ruggs. Wilson, Wilson, and Murray may be a trio of overpaid weirdos coming off bad seasons, but none of them have ever been accused of violent crimes. That’s an upgrade, as far as I’m concerned.

Who is your choice for the 2022 Keep Choppin’ Game Film Award (most ineffective head coach or coordinator)? (Last year’s winner: Urban Meyer, JAX head coach

56.8% Nathaniel Hackett, HC, DEN
18.6% Matt Patricia, OC, NE
9.8% Jeff Saturday, HC, IND
7.0% Kliff Kingsbury, HC, ARI
3.1% Josh McDaniels, HC, LV
3.1% Matt Rhule, HC, CAR

Once more I yield the floor to the esteemed Mr. Knowles:

But I am amazed at how unprepared Hackett was; how even the simplest aspects of head coaching seemed beyond him. By the end of his tenure in Denver, he had outsourced the play-calling and game management decisions, and he mostly ended up standing on the sideline looking befuddled as his team cratered. Hackett became just the fifth coach since the merger to fail to make it through his first full season as a head coach, forever linked with Urban Meyer, Bobby Petrino, Pete McCulley, and Lou Holtz on the list of all-time flops.

In New England, Matt Patricia’s offense was so ill-schemed and disorganized that his own quarterback was routinely cursing in frustration. And in just half a season in Indianapolis, Jeff Saturday managed to:

  • Lose 54-19 to the Cowboys, the Colts’ worst loss in five seasons.
  • Turn a 36-7 third-quarter advantage into a 39-36 overtime loss to Minnesota, the biggest blown lead in league history.
  • Lose by 17 points to the Chargers.
  • Lose by 28 points to the Giants.
  • Lose the season finale to a Houston team that was looking to clinch the top pick in the draft.

And speaking of the Colts…

Who was the least deserving pick for the Pro Bowl (not including injury replacements)? (Last year’s winner: Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL)

24.6% Quenton Nelson, LG, IND
23.8% Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
12.8% Trevon Diggs, CB, DAL
12.6% Orlando Brown, LT, KC
10.3% Xavien Howard, CB, MIA
7.1% C.J. Mosley, ILB, NYJ
5.6% Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
3.2% Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG

In one of our closest races of awards season, Quenton Nelson of the Colts (next to last in rush offense DVOA) ekes out a dubious victory over Kirk Cousins (-16.3% DVOA on plays where he was not throwing to Justin Jefferson). Trevon Diggs (64.7% completion rate allowed, per PFR) also had his share of critics.

Who is the most deserving offensive player left off the Pro Bowl roster? (Last year’s winner: Josh Allen, QB, BUF)

32.2% Christian McCaffrey, SF
15.1% Austin Ekeler, LAC
14.5% Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET
8.3% Penei Sewell, DET
8.0% Jared Goff, DET
5.7% Jaylen Waddle, MIA

Christian McCaffrey was third in the NFL and first in the NFC (and both his teams played in the NFC) in yards from scrimmage, and it was his arrival in San Francisco that really turned the 49ers offense around. He also finished first at his position in receiving DYAR, though Austin Ekeler beat him in volume, leading all runners with 107 receptions.

But I want to talk about Detroit. This is a write-in category, with voters free to name any player that comes to mind. And the Lions as a team were so underrated that their top wideout, lineman, and quarterback all received a significant number of votes. That’s a lot of under-ratin’.

Who is the most deserving defensive player left off the Pro Bowl roster? (Last year’s winner: Micah Hyde, S, BUF)

28.0% Matt Milano, LB, BUF
21.4% Dre Greenlaw, LB, SF
12.6% Javon Hargrave, DT, PHI
10.1% Christian Wilkins, DT, MIA
5.3% Alex Highsmith, ER, PIT
4.7% Tremaine Edmunds, LB, BUF

While the 49ers had the league’s best DVOA against passes to running backs, the Bills were third, and they were first against tight ends. That’s a credit to Matt Milano, Buffalo’s top linebacker in coverage, who gave up only 5.7 yards per target, per PFR. Dre Greenlaw and Javon Hargrave, meanwhile, are a pair of excellent defenders on two of the deepest defenses in the league, which means they are sometimes overshadowed by their teammates.

Who is the most deserving special teams player left off the Pro Bowl roster? (Last year’s winner: Braxton Berrios, NYJ)

20.1% Daniel Carlson, LV
19.4% Ryan Stonehouse, TEN
17.0% Marcus Jones, NE
13.8% Keisean Nixon, GB
12.0% Graham Gano, NYG
8.8% Matt Gay, LAR

It was a big year for special teamers! Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson led the league in total points scored in 2020 and 2021. He fell to third place in 2022, but that’s mostly due to limited opportunity—he went 35-for-36 on extra points and 34-for-37 on field goals, including an 11-of-13 performance on kicks of 50-plus yards. Ryan Stonehouse averaged an all-time record 53.1 yards per punt, breaking the 82-year-old record of Sammy Baugh my a yard and a half. And New England rookie Marcus Jones led the NFL with 362 yards and a 12.5-yard average on punt returns (not to mention his scores on both offense and defense).

Who is the player most likely to break out in 2023? (Last year’s winner: Trevor Lawrence, JAX)

10.5% Justin Fields, CHI
6.7% Trey Lance, SF
6.4% George Pickens, PIT
4.2% Jameson Williams, DET
3.8% Kenny Pickett, PIT
3.2% Trevor Lawrence, JAX
3.2% Christian Watson, GB
2.9% Jordan Love, GB

Well this is interesting. Thanks in part to Jeff Saturday’s incompetence, the Chicago Bears hold the top pick in April’s draft, and there’s some discussion that they could trade Justin Fields and select C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young instead. According to our readers, that would be a mistake—Fields has a lot of room to improve, but he has also shown a rare ability to produce long plays with his arms and legs alike. Players with these gifts don’t grow on trees.

Elsewhere, Trey Lance finishes second for the second year in a row as he remains a walking bundle of unfulfilled potential. And Pittsburgh’s George Pickens flashed big-play potential down the stretch, averaging 17.8 yards per catch after the Steelers’ bye in Week 9.

The Trevor Lawrence votes are interesting. Didn’t he already break out this year? That was a good call in the 2021 awards by the readers.

Who is the player most likely to significantly decline in 2023? (Last year’s winner: Aaron Rodgers, GB)

17.6% Aaron Rodgers, GB
13.6% Geno Smith, SEA
8.0% Derrick Henry, TEN
6.5% Kirk Cousins, MIN
5.6% Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
4.6% Daniel Jones, NYG
3.7% Josh Jacobs, LV
3.1% Jalen Hurts, PHI

The readers expected Aaron Rodgers to decline, and he did, and now they’re predicting him to decline again. Ouch. Geno Smith threw for a career-high 4,282 yards in 2022, but his median season over nine years in the NFL is less than 250 yards; last year’s total screams fluke, and Smith is also 33. Derrick Henry isn’t quite 30 yet, but he just led the NFL in carries for the third time in four seasons; that workload will eventually break down even the league’s toughest runner.

Who do you expect to win Comeback Player of the Year in 2023?(Last year’s winner: Lamar Jackson, BAL)

18.8% Russell Wilson, DEN
8.8% Trey Lance, SF
5.7% Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
5.7% Cooper Kupp, LAR
5.7% Kyler Murray, ARI
5.4% Damar Hamlin, BUF
5.0% Lamar Jackson, BAL
5.0% Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

Wilson wasn’t horrible at everything in his first season in Denver; he ranked third in DYAR on deep passes, behind only Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa. With Nathaniel Hackett sent packin’, it’s up to Sean Payton to maintain Wilson’s excellence throwing deep while fixing his many, many mistakes throwing short. Trey Lance still remains a walking bundle of unfulfilled potential. And Cooper Kupp averaged over 90 yards per game last season—a steep fall from the 114.5 he averaged in 2021, but still in the top five in the league.

(Ed. Note: This one shocked me. If Damar Hamlin gets on the field for a single snap next year, he will win this award. — Aaron Schatz)

Which of the following teams is most likely next season’s surprise Super Bowl contender? (Last year’s winner: Denver Broncos)

25.8% New York Jets
14.6% Pittsburgh
13.3% Denver
10.3% Carolina
9.7% New England
7.5% Cleveland
4.5% Chicago
3.2% Washington

The Jets ranked in the top 10 in defense against both the run and the pass. Breece Hall racked up 109 rushing DYAR in only 80 carries before being injured; only 12 qualifiers had more DYAR, and that’s a stat that accumulates with playing time. Garrett Wilson was the AP’s (if not FO’s) offensive rookie of the year. There’s a lot to like here if they can just find a quarterback … and this happens to be an offseason with an unusually high number of quarterbacks available. As for Pittsburgh and Denver, votes for those teams mostly show belief in improvement from Kenny Pickett and Russell Wilson.

Which playoff team is most likely to miss the postseason in 2023? (Last year’s winner: Pittsburgh Steelers)

47.8% Tampa Bay
16.1% Minnesota
12.4% New York Giants
6.7% Seattle
3.8% Dallas
3.8% Miami
2.7% Baltimore
2.7% Los Angeles Chargers

Well, they weren’t that good before, and now their quarterback’s gone. That’s a pretty good reason to be skeptical of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Lavonte David and Akiem Hicks are about to be free agents. Oh, and they’re dead last in effective cap space (yes, behind even the Saints) per Over the Cap. It seems the question in Tampa is not whether the Bucs will decline, but if the Falcons, Saints, or Panthers will improve enough to catch them.

The second- and third-place finishers here are the Vikings and Giants, which is funny since they met in the playoffs. But as we wrote at the time, these were two bad playoff teams, and odds are good that one or both will miss the playoffs in 2023.

Which of these turnaround units is most likely to keep its improvement and fight off regression to the mean in 2023? (Listed with DVOA rank in 2021 and 2022) (Last year’s winner: San Francisco offense)

34.7% Jacksonville offense (27/9)
15.8% Detroit offense (29/5)
13.3% New York Jets defense (32/5)
10.9% Miami offense (24/7)
9.7% Baltimore defense (28/7)
9.5% Philadelphia defense (25/6)
4.2% New York Giants offense (32/10)
1.9% Washington defense (27/9)

Trevor Lawrence? Not a fluke. Healthy Travis Etienne? Not a fluke. Brandon Scherff, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones sticking around for another productive year? Probably not flukes. Now add Calvin Ridley to the mix. Yes, there’s a lot to like about the Jaguars in the future. There’s also a lot to like about the Lions offense (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams) and the Jets defense (Sauce).

Which ad wins the “Get Your Story Straight” Award for best commercial or ad campaign during NFL games this season? (Last year’s winner: Progressive’s “Don’t Turn into Your Parents”)

23.3% Progressive “Challenge Flag”
22.4% State Farm “Andy Reid Mustaches”
12.4% Burger King “Whopper Whopper Whopper Whopper”
9.8% Progressive “Dr. Rick Book Signing”
7.4% Apple iPhone 14 “Leon the Dead Lizard”
7.4% Dr. Pepper “Chaos Comes to Fanville”
7.1% UberEats Sarah Silverman
3.8% Taco Bell Davante Adams

The folks in Progressive’s marketing department are really good at their jobs. The “Don’t Turn Into Your Parents” campaign had won this award for two years in a row, but this year’s installment—”Dr. Rick Book Signing”—dropped to fourth place. That cleared the way for … Progressive, but this time with the “Challenge Flag” series that debuted late in the year. A lot of our readers also enjoy Andy Reid being silly, and some even enjoy quirky songs about burgers.

Which ad wins the “John Mellencamp Must Die” Award for worst commercial or ad campaign during NFL games this season? (Last year’s winner: Facebook “Introducing Meta”)

27.7% DirecTV “Football Housewives”
20.9% Burger King “Whopper Whopper Whopper Whopper”
18.4% Verizon “Einstein’s Network”
10.9% State Farm “Patrick Mahomes Bath Bombs”
9.5% Liberty Mutual “Limu Emu Bowling Alley”
4.2% Jersey Mike’s Danny DeVito
4.2% Old Navy Jennifer Coolidge
1.9% Spectrum Mobile “Freeeeee”

I would consider this the biggest upset of these awards. Over the season, I heard and read dozens of complaints about the repetitive nature of Burger King’s “Whopper Whopper Whopper Whopper” song, which is either a witty spoof on jingles themselves or just lazy and uninventive songwriting, depending on the ear of the beholder. However, I heard next to nothing about the obnoxious women in garish outfits interrupting a football game to scream “I JUST WANT TO TALK!” This viewpoint may be unenlightened, and I certainly don’t mean to speak for everyone, but a lot of us are watching football in the first place specifically because we don’t want to talk. I thought I was the only one who hated these ads, which seem designed to irritate the very audience they’re being shown to, but apparently I am not alone.

There was an also an ad with an Einstein imitator that wasn’t very funny.

Which was the best touchdown celebration of 2022? (Last year’s winner: MIA: Christian Wilkins does the worm)

20.5% PHI: DeVonta Smith robs the Salvation Army
19.6% CIN: Joe Mixon’s coin flip
14.6% CHI: Slip and slide celebration
13.5% MIN: Bowling celebration
12.1% DAL: Whack-a-Mole
10.7% JAX: Three Spider-Men

It’s late. I’m tired. Here’s the winner. Congratulations on your award, DeVonta, you Scrooge you.

Thanks to everyone for voting in this year’s awards, and thanks for reading Football Outsiders during another season.





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