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Justin Jefferson Carries Fantasy Managers to Playoffs

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NFL Week 14 – Week 14 is over, and so is the fantasy football regular season, but now is not the time to kick back and get complacent. Dive in and get up to speed on everything you need to know to smash the fantasy playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals season has seemingly been on the ropes from the very first weekend and with the unfortunate injury that Kyler Murray suffered early against the Patriots it’s unlikely we see much more from them this year. Murray suffered a suspected torn ACL injury that could keep him out for much of the offseason training program. The Cardinals have plenty of questions heading into the offseason, including the future of Kliff Kingsbury as well as Marquise Brown needing a new contract and DeAndre Hopkins is likely going to be unhappy that he has no guaranteed salary on his contract, which runs for a further two years. With Colt McCoy at quarterback for three games since Week 10, James Conner has scored over 23 PPR points in two of those games and will likely see a heavy workload down the stretch and even though he faces top run defenses in Denver and Tampa Bay, his volume should be good enough for fantasy purposes.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were without Lamar Jackson this week and lost backup quarterback Tyler Huntley for much of this game, but they did welcome back J.K. Dobbins and star left tackle Ronnie Stanley. The combination of those two helped the Ravens running game look the best it had in weeks, with Dobbins rushing 15 times for 120 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens running backs now average 5.24 yards per carry in games with Ronnie Stanley, 3.66 without. Demarcus Robinson continues to lead the wide receivers in targets with 27 in the last four weeks, which is twice as many as the next nearest.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have cooled off significantly since the first half of the season, when Josh Allen seemed a lock to be the MVP. Allen opened the season with six top-five fantasy performances, but has managed only two more in the following seven games as he has slid to be the QB8 in DVOA. The Bills round out their regular season against the Dolphins, Bears, and Bengals before a meaningless fantasy matchup with the Patriots in Week 18. Where Allen has been reliable is in the running game, with only two games below six attempts this year. Allen is rushing 7.6 times per game, which is a career-high, and his 48.3 yards per game is the highest amount since his rookie year. Over 50% of Allen’s points this week came from rushing production, and whilst we’d like to some more passing touchdowns, it bodes well for Week 15 against a Miami defense that allowed the three dual threats they have faced to average 114.6 rushing yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers led the league in rushing attempts in Week 14 with 46 rushes turning into 223 rushing yards. D’Onta Foreman had 46% of the running back opportunities, which was a slight dip from his average of 60% over the previous three weeks. Foreman’s reduced role might have been down to him returning from injury, but also because Chuba Hubbard had his best game of the season, running 14 times for 74 yards and a touchdown. If this backfield devolves further into a committee, it’ll be hard to trust either Foreman or Hubbard going forward, but they should be rostered in all formats in case anything happens to the other one. DJ Moore was held catchless and is still stuck on a career-high four touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals continue to roll and finally got the Cleveland-shaped monkey off their back with their first win against the Browns in the Joe Burrow era, and they now have five wins in a row. Joe Mixon returned to the lineup and saw a slightly reduced workload with 57% of the running back opportunities, down from his season average of 77% when healthy. Samaje Perine played well enough during Mixon’s absence to deserve a bigger workload, and whilst Mixon isn’t worth benching, it’s time to consider that his ceiling might be lower going forward. The Bengals have the top offense in DVOA over the last four weeks and they should be a priority in playoff best ball contests.

Cleveland Browns

Outside of Cleveland, there won’t be too many people upset to see Deshaun Watson’s Brown looking like a bad team, managing just one offensive touchdown in eight quarters. Even the reliable running game has looked poor over the last two games with Nick Chubb being held to 2.4 yards per carry and failing to pass 50 rushing yards for only the second time this year. Donovan Peoples-Jones continues his solid season and is the WR32, ahead of the likes of Allen Lazard, Jerry Jeudy, and Diontae Johnson.

Dallas Cowboys

Since Ezekiel Elliott’s return from injury in Week 11, both he and Tony Pollard have been top-10 options in three of the four games they have played together. In that spell, Pollard is the RB2 and Elliott the RB7 as the Cowboys have rushed the ball an average of 36 times per game, up by almost 20% from their season average of 30.8. In Week 15 the Cowboys play the Jaguars, who are a pass-funnel defense, ranking eighth against the run and 29th against the pass. It’s not worth benching the Cowboys running backs, but in DFS they might be worth fading for a week.

Denver Broncos

Jerry Jeudy’s three-touchdown day capped off a couple of weeks where Russell Wilson has looked slightly improved from the very low bar that he and the Broncos have set this season. Wilson’s three passing touchdowns in one game were as many as he had managed in his last five games combined. With Courtland Sutton unable to play this week, Jeudy always looked like a solid play (as you knew if you read our Week 14 DFS preview), and with matchups coming up against poor passing defenses including the Cardinals and Rams, Jeudy might have more spike weeks ahead. Wilson exited this game with a concussion, and if he can’t play it will be back up Brett Rypien; Rypien targeted Jeudy on three of his eight passing plays against Kansasy City.

Detroit Lions

The Lions are finding good form at exactly the right time of year. Jared Goff has been in great form recently and completed seven passes for more than 16 air yards against the Vikings, including a pair of 40-plus-yard touchdown passes. Jameson Williams had a quiet debut in Week 13, but this week he scored on a blown coverage from 41 yards out, which was his first catch in the league. Jared Goff is now third in DYAR and effective yards amongst quarterbacks with 200 passes or more.

Houston Texans

For the first time since Week 5, Dameon Pierce scored a rushing touchdown for the Texans in a performance that was far more spirited than most would have expected. The Cowboys’ eighth-ranked defense allowed the Texans’ 32nd-ranked offense to push them all the way to the final seconds of the game. After running for 16 yards on 15 attempts in Weeks 11 and 12 combined, Pierce has looked livelier these last two weeks, rushing 40 times for 151 yards, which is a reasonable floor in fantasy. Chris Moore has been a special teams player for much of his seven-year career, but he has had 40 or more yards in four of the last six games, and his 124 yards against the Cowboys were a career high. Moore’s 20 receptions in his last four games are more than he has ever recorded in a season before, and while this Texans team is tricky to count on, they play the Chiefs in Week 15 and Moore should be picked up in very deep leagues.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The tight end landscape is such a wasteland that one big blowup game propels players to the top five, and this is what happened with Evan Engram after his 11 catches, 162 yards, and two-touchdown day skyrocketed him up to the TE4 on the season in PPR formats. Before Week 14, Engram was averaging 7.9 points and had one game over 14 points, with only two games over five catches all year. Engram’s 39.2 PPR points is the kind of day that will be long remembered when fantasy playoff positions are on the line. Zay Jones continued his great run of form and now has three top-eight finishes this season amongst wide receivers, which is the same amount as Mike Evans, Gabe Davis, and Deebo Samuel combined.

Kansas City Chiefs

When the Chiefs defense scored a pick-six with four minutes remaining in the second quarter, it felt like the offense might be done for the day, and if you didn’t already have points secured, you could be in a dark place. Thankfully the Broncos were able to push the Chiefs slightly and the starters weren’t pulled, but Patrick Mahomes’ three-interception performance was his first since 2020 and only the third of his career, which helped to keep the Broncos in this game. Over the last three games, Isiah Pacheco has averaged 14.7 PPR points and been a top-16 RB each week. Amongst running backs with 100 attempts, Pacheco is fourth in success rate. Both Pacheco and McKinnon are managing to be usable each week that Clyde Edwards-Helaire has missed, and that should continue with the Chiefs facing the Texans in Week 15.

Las Vegas Raiders

With the Raiders’ loss to the Rams on Thursday night, they at least have slightly longer to rest and get Josh Jacobs healthy for the final few fantasy games of the season. Jacobs seems to leave the game every week with a new injury, but thankfully for fantasy managers he has been able to overcome most of them. Jacobs has 123 touches since the start of Week 11, which is 39 more than any other running back in that period. With Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller reportedly close to returning from injuries, it’s possible the Raiders lean on Jacobs slightly less going forward.

Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler is the RB1 in PPR formats and is managing to do so despite rushing for 48.8 yards per game. Even by Ekeler’s standards, he’s doing less in this area of the game than in the previous two years, when he averaged over 56 yards per game. Whilst it might give fuel to the anti-PPR purists, this isn’t by any means a negative. If Ekeler can continue to produce in the receiving game and with touchdowns, then it should help to prolong his career and keep his dynasty value high. Sunday was the first time all season that Justin Herbert had both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams healthy for an entire game, and it resulted in his highest passing yardage of the season (367 yards).

Los Angeles Rams

The most unlikely of wins came from a couple of moments of magic from Baker Mayfield, and as much as the Raiders deserve to be criticized, Sean McVay and Mayfield deserve some level of praise for managing this win on such a short turnaround from when Mayfield was added to the roster. Mayfield has been awful this year with the Panthers and it is unlikely he keeps this barebone Rams team winning, but if he can keep them remotely competitive for fantasy purposes, then we have to pay a small amount of attention to them. Tutu Atwell has had over 45 receiving yards in three of his last four games and is worth rostering in deep leagues and considering for DFS lineups.

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa has now gone three weeks without a top-15 fantasy finish and is averaging 11 points less per game over the last three games compared to the previous three. Tagovailoa had a 20% completion rate in the first half against San Francisco, and per the Sunda night broadcast, that was the lowest of any quarterback this season. Jaylen Waddle has three catches for 40 yards in his last two games and his last four weekly finishes are WR38, WR28, WR98, and WR63, which aren’t helping anyone right now. Jeff Wilson was carted from the game with a hip injury, and if he can’t play in Week 15, then Raheem Mostert is a must-start.

Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson had another huge day, catching 11 targets for 223 yards, and it could have been more if not for a bad call that cost him another 29 yards and a touchdown. Jefferson is the WR1 in DYAR and effective yards, along with leading receivers in total receiving yards. Throughout his career, Jefferson now has 22 games with over 100 yards in less than three seasons and is on pace to shatter Jerry Rice’s 76 100-yard games in 303 career games. Whilst Jefferson is feasting, Dalvin Cook is struggling. He is the RB12 but has only finished inside the top 12 once in his last six games. Cook’s 2.2 receptions per game are 21st amongst running backs and are the lowest amount in his six-year career.

New England Patriots

The only enjoyable part of the Patriots offense of late has been seeing Rhamondre Stevenson plowing through defenses and unfortunately, he wasn’t able to do so against the Cardinals, leaving the game with an ankle injury. If Damien Harris is unable to return for Week 15 and Stevenson should miss time, Pierre Strong looks like a worthy waiver wire pickup. Strong had five carries to Kevin Harris’s eight, but was far more productive, turning them into 70 yards, as well as having two receptions to Harris’s zero.

New York Giants

The Giants have made huge leaps forward as a team under Brian Daboll, but the fact remains that they are still a talent-poor team on offense and when Saquon Barkley is unable to get going, there is little else. Barkley entered the week as a game-time decision with a neck injury and had a season-low 11 touches for 48 yards. In Week 15 against the Commanders rush defense, which ranks fourth in DVOA, Barkley will be a risky start. Richie James has been surprisingly good for fantasy purposes lately with three top-22 performances in his last four games and fellow receiver Isaiah Hodgins has touchdowns in back-to-back games. Next week they face a Commanders team that ranks fourth against the pass in the last four weeks, and both players are fringe starters better reserved for DFS tournaments.

New York Jets

The Jets pushed the Bills for four quarters and were unlucky to come away with a loss, as well as injuries to Mike White and Corey Davis. With Davis leaving the game early with a head injury, Elijah Moore played over 80% of the snaps for the first time since Week 4 and caught six of his 10 targets for 60 yards. Davis was placed in the concussion protocol, and if he should miss Week 15, then Elijah Moore is a fantastic start against a Lions defense that has struggled with slot receivers. At running back, James Robinson was again a healthy scratch, making him droppable in redraft leagues as Michael Carter was the clear second choice behind Zonovan Knight, who now looks to be a solid starter till we see otherwise.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are absolutely rolling and one of the most fun teams to watch week-in and week-out right now. The rushing offense ranks second in DVOA over the last four weeks and Miles Sanders is one of five running backs with over 1,000 rushing yards. Sanders scored zero touchdowns in 2021 but this year he has 11 so far, which is only behind Nick Chubb and Jamaal Williams at the position. The Eagles will be different from week to week and sometimes that won’t benefit us in any fantasy, but there’s not much we can do but sit back and enjoy it.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers could have fallen apart when Mitch Trubisky took over for Kenny Pickett, who left the game with a concussion, and despite Trubisky throwing three interceptions, he looked OK on the whole, helping Diontae Johnson and George Pickens to their best performances in several weeks. Pickens in particular flashed with a 42-yard catch deep on the sideline. If the Steelers can put up a lead against the Panthers it might give Najee Harris an opportunity to rack up some points. Harris could do with padding his stats at this point after an incredibly disappointing year. He has scored more than 13.0 PPR points in just one of his last 10 games and has been a top-20 running back four times, and only one of those was inside the top 10.

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy has been a revelation these last two weeks, surpassing all reasonable expectations for a player who was drafted by the skin of his teeth and helping the Niners to be the sixth-best team in offensive DVOA over that spell. With Deebo Samuel set to miss some time with a high-ankle sprain, Brandon Aiyuk could see an increase in targets to cap off the good year he has been having. Aiyuk has scored six touchdowns since Week 6, fourth-most amongst wide receivers.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks found themselves in a surprise deficit to the Panthers, trailing by 17 points early in the second quarter, and were forced to try and pass their way back into the game, which led to Geno Smith throwing two interceptions in the first half. The Seahawks did manage to keep this game viable for fantasy purposes with Geno scoring 20.6 points, which helped him to his sixth-consecutive top-12 finish. Things look tricky for the Seahawks in the fantasy playoffs, with matchups against the 49ers and Jets, who both have top-six defenses.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers had a 68-yard passing touchdown to Mike Evans reversed for a holding penalty that otherwise would have given Evans his first touchdown since Week 4. Evans is struggling this season, with his downfield connection with Tom Brady struggling to ignite like it did the previous two years. Evans has finished outside the top 30 wide receivers each of the last five weeks but might find better matchups with the Bengals and Cardinals in the coming weeks, who both rank in the bottom half of passing defense DVOA over the last four weeks.

Tennessee Titans

In last week’s article, I mentioned that Chigoziem Okonkwo was worth rostering after several steady weeks, and this week Okonkwo had a true fantasy breakout with 18.5 PPR points. The Titans needed someone to step up with Treylon Burks missing this game as a result of a concussion, along with Derrick Henry being held to 2 rushing yards in the second half of this game. Okonkwo seems to have carved out a role for himself and should be considered for a Week 15 matchup against the Chargers, who rank 24th against tight ends in DVOA. Okonkwo is worth rostering in all formats.



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