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The early to mid-sixties were rough on the New York Mets. They began their history by setting the record for most losses in a season in the modern era with a 40-120 record in 1962. Over their first six seasons, they averaged 108 losses a year and only avoided 100 losses in the 1966 season when they lost 95. Luckily for the Mets, the major league baseball amateur draft began in 1965 which awarded the team with the worst record the first pick in the next year’s draft. One would think any Mets fan would rejoice over this invention, giving their team a chance to improve each year with a high draft pick. However, when it comes to projecting success for high draft picks and rookies, not all goes according to plan.
If the Mets harbored high hopes for the first two picks they made in the first two amateur drafts, they were quickly and efficiently dashed. The very first pick in the very first draft in 1965 was Arizona State outfielder Rick Monday by the Kansas City Athletics. The Mets, after finishing the 1964 season with a record of 53-109, had the second overall pick and chose Les Rohr, a left-handed starting pitcher. Rohr’s entire major league career consisted of 24 innings pitched in which he walked 17 and struck out 20. He was a member of the world champion 1969 Mets but only appeared in one game all season long, faced 10 batters in 1 1/3 innings and gave up 3 earned runs on 5 hits.
The Mets were even worse in 1965 with a 50-112 record and were poised to make a franchise-changing selection in the 1966 amateur draft with the first overall pick. Prior to the draft, scouts were salivating over a 17-year-old from Antelope Valley High School in Lancaster, California. Anticipating he would be the first pick, even Mets manager Casey Stengel attended one of his games in high school. He won three state championships in three years. He was a left-handed batter with power, speed and a cannon for an arm. But what really got scouts salivating was the fact that he possessed all these tools and he was a catcher! So naturally the Mets took Steve Chilcott with the first overall pick.
A can’t miss prospect.
After finishing the 1966 season in rookie ball, the Mets promoted Chilcott to A ball in 1967, a huge jump for an 18-year-old, confirming just how highly they thought of him. Through 79 games, he was living up to the hype hitting .290 with six home runs, 45 RBI, six stolen bases and a 33 to 37 walk to strikeout ratio. But on July 23rd he dislocated his shoulder badly diving back into second base. He didn’t know it at the time, but that essentially ended his career. Over the next five years, his shoulder dislocated itself fourteen times. He became only one of three number one overall picks who never spent a day in the major leagues. Adding insult to injury was the fact that the Kansas City Athletics had the second overall pick in the 1966 draft and once again selected an outfielder from Arizona State. This time it was a guy named Reggie Jackson.
The number one overall pick of the 1973 MLB amateur draft, however, not only made the major leagues, but was the starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers only 22 days after the draft. Some scouts had proclaimed David Clyde, an 18-year-old left-hander from Westchester High School in Houston, to be the best pitching prospect they had ever seen. Some compared him to Sandy Koufax. The Rangers, who had just moved from Washington D.C. as the Senators to Arlington, Texas the previous season in 1972, needed a big gate attraction to improve their slumping attendance. Their biggest gate attraction up to that point had been their manager Ted Williams. With Williams gone for the 1973 season, they needed a new attraction. So on June 27, the Rangers threw caution to the wind and gave the ball to the high school phenom.
A can’t miss prospect.
In his major league debut, Clyde allowed only one hit in five innings and struck out eight in beating the Twins, 4-3. In his second start, he pitched six strong innings and struck out six against the White Sox. The Rangers plan had been to only give him two starts to boost their attendance then send him to the minors. But the success he had in those first two starts completely blinded them for the need to get him the proper seasoning. He finished the 1973 season with a 4-8 record and a 5.01 ERA. The Rangers still refused to send him to the minors the next season and he finished 1974 with a 3-9 record and a 4.38 ERA. When he developed shoulder problems in 1975, they finally sent him to the minors but it was too late. His career was essentially over. He retired after the 1979 season with a lifetime record of 18-33 and a career WHIP of 1.53. Again, 20/20 hindsight revealed who the Rangers could have picked number one in the 1973 draft. Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Dave Winfield were the third and fourth overall picks, respectively.
Every baseball season includes a fresh crop of the next “can’t miss” prospects. But which ones are most likely to experience success in the major leagues? Examining the following factors might determine which ones are most likely to contend for this year’s rookie of the year awards and which ones will have to wait to experience major league success if at all. First, how much seasoning has the player had in the minor leagues? Has he had time to develop? Usually, pitchers take longer than hitters. Second, have his statistics improved with each promotion through the minor leagues? If he has improved at each level, chances are better that he’ll be able to navigate the transition from minor leagues to major leagues. Third, does the player have a clear opportunity to play regularly on his major league team? No matter how good he is, if he doesn’t have an opportunity to play he won’t have success right away. Finally, luck enters the equation. No matter how much seasoning a player has gotten, no matter how much he has improved at each level, no matter if he has an opportunity to play, if he gets hurt his success will be delayed or, in some cases, his career will end before it even starts.
BEST BETS:
GUNNAR HENDERSON (ORIOLES)
Henderson is the frontrunner coming out of the gate for the American League award. He’s already had 116 at-bats in the major leagues, just under the 130 at-bat limit to qualify for rookie status. He will come into this season as a staple in an improving Orioles’ lineup, hitting in the middle of the order. Henderson is a left-handed power hitter which bodes well if your home ballpark is Camden Yards. The right field wall is a cozy 318 feet from home plate, providing a haven for left-handed power hitters to pull the ball beyond the wall onto the flag court or even further onto Eutaw Street. It rivals the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium (314 feet) and the Green Monster at Fenway Park (310 feet) for famous home run magnets. However, Henderson is not pull happy. He pulled the ball 39% of the time and hit it to the opposite field 33% of the time last season. He’ll be able to take advantage of the vast expanse of the newly enlarged left field of Camden Yards as well, poking in singles and sending balls to the gap for doubles. Significantly, he maintained the same walk and strikeout percentages in the majors as he did in Triple A. With Baltimore, he had a 12% walk and 25.8% strikeout percentage as compared to 13% and 26.4% in Triple A; an encouraging sign for a young power hitter. He also maintained a 92.4 mph average exit velocity in the majors. By way of comparison, Shohei Ohtani’s average exit velocity in 2022 was 92.9 mph. In short, he hits the ball hard to all fields with power. A short sample size to be sure but so far, what’s not to like?
MASATAKA YOSHIDA (RED SOX)
Perhaps the co-favorite with Henderson in the American League is Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox. Yoshida is not a prospect; he is a 7-year veteran of the Japanese major leagues. Accomplished veterans of Japanese and Korean teams, technically still rookies in MLB, have an obvious advantage over their MLB counterparts. Yoshida, at 29 years old, will step right into the Red Sox lineup as their regular leftfielder. In Japan’s Pacific League, his OPS improved every year from .956 in 2018 to 1.007 last season. His on-base percentage never dipped below .400 and starting in 2019, he had more walks than strikeouts every season. In the three seasons from 2020 to 2022, he walked 213 times and only struck out an astonishing 97 times in 1,467 plate appearances. He also flashed some power, hitting over 20 home runs in four of his last five seasons with a high of 29 in 2019. Furthermore, he produced these numbers despite hitting in the Pacific League, famous for their top starting pitchers and despite regularly facing a shift, an uncommon practice in the Japanese leagues. His power numbers might not translate to the major leagues, but they don’t have to. His calling card will be that amazing eye he has at the plate, getting on base and not striking out to keep rallies going. Hitters who can make consistent contact and put the ball in play will be at a higher premium this year with the abolition of the shift. After all, if a hitter strikes out all the time, who cares where the fielders play? He does not possess very much speed so might not be the Red Sox’ leadoff hitter and he might lose a few at-bats against lefties, but he will most certainly hit in the top half of their lineup. Standing only 5-foot-8 and weighing 176 pounds, Yoshida is bound to remind Red Sox fans of another diminutive dynamo who won the Rookie of the Year in 2007 named Dustin Pedroia.
TRISTON CASAS (RED SOX)
The Red Sox have a second legitimate contender for American League Rookie of the Year in first baseman Triston Casas. Unlike his fellow rookie Yoshida, Casas is a monster at 6-foot-5, 252 pounds. His calling card in the majors will very much be his power. Casas was the Red Sox’ first round pick in the 2018 draft and has already had a taste of the major leagues, getting 27 games under his belt last season showing a hint of his power with five home runs. While most young hitters find it difficult to maintain a healthy walk to strikeout ratio, especially when they reach the majors, Casas has displayed keen plate discipline at each level he’s reached in the Red Sox organization. He maintained a stellar on-base percentage in each of his three minor league seasons and had a 19 to 27 walk to strikeout ratio in his 27 games in the majors. He cut down on his strikeouts after his first professional season and as a result hit a healthy .279 in 2021 and .281 in Triple A last year. He is not your prototypical young power hitter who only hits home runs and strikes out. He has been injury prone in the minor leagues and might lose a few at-bats against tough lefties this season, but he is set to be the Red Sox’ everyday first baseman in a hitter’s friendly ballpark. There’s even been some talk during spring training that he will bat leadoff.
CORBIN CARROLL (DIAMONDBACKS)
Look up the word “athlete” in the dictionary and you’ll find a picture of Corbin Carroll. When Carroll was drafted number 16 overall in 2019 by the Diamondbacks, he profiled as a leadoff hitter with speed and a premier defensive outfielder. Now, after only 142 games played in the minor leagues, Carroll has emerged as the favorite for National League Rookie of the Year as a complete five tool player. Despite his slight build at 165 pounds, Carroll has suddenly developed legitimate power. He showed little power in his first professional season in 2019 in Low A ball, hitting only two home runs in 42 games. After his 2020 season was lost due to the pandemic, he played in only 7 games in 2021 at High A Hillsboro before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in May. But last season he proved his shoulder troubles were behind him. His power blossomed in Double A and Triple A with a total of 24 home runs and 22 doubles, as well as the expected 31 stolen bases. Like Henderson and Casas, he got a head start on his rookie campaign by getting into 32 games in the majors last season where he continued to display his newfound power with four home runs and nine doubles, good for a .500 slugging percentage. The usual requirement of adequate minor league seasoning to predict major league success might be able to be waived in Carroll’s case given his extreme athleticism and the huge step he took forward last year at the highest level of the minor leagues. He will have plenty of time to adjust to the majors as he will undoubtedly serve as the Diamondbacks’ everyday leadoff hitter.
EZEQUIEL TOVAR (ROCKIES)
That sound you hear is opportunity knocking on the door for shortstop Ezequiel Tovar of the Rockies. Even though he’s only 21 years old, he has risen steadily through each level of the Rockies’ minor league system and found success at each one. Tovar made tremendous progress from 2021 to last season when he was promoted to Double A and Triple A as a 20-year-old. He had a .796 OPS with 15 home runs in a full season in 2021 and improved to a .927 OPS and 14 home runs in only 71 games last season before suffering a groin injury late in June that kept him out of action for over two months. He then got a taste of the big leagues late in the season with 33 at-bats. He also maintained a high batting average, hitting .287 in 2021 and .319 at Double A and Triple A last season. The fact that the Rockies have promoted him every year at such a young age and have seen consistent production at every level portends early success in the major leagues. He makes consistent contact and hits the ball to all fields which will produce a bevy of doubles and triples at spacious Coors Field with his speed. He posted double-figure stolen bases in each of his four minor league seasons. He is also a plus defender at shortstop. He’ll have no problem holding down the everyday shortstop job for the Rockies, although he’ll probably start the season batting low in the order. But if he produces at a high level like he has in the past, he’ll no doubt rise in the order. Barring injury, he should get 500 at-bats—half of them in hitter’s haven Coors—and post double figures in home runs and stolen bases which will certainly make him a viable Rookie of the Year candidate.
NOT HIS TIME JUST YET:
By everyone’s account, 21-year-old Anthony Volpe of the Yankees has that “it” factor. His poise, maturity and production at Yankee camp this spring has screamed “Yankee starting shortstop.” He is the number one prospect in the Yankee system. Comparisons to Derek Jeter are inevitable if not premature, and the Yankees are using all the politically correct language, saying that he has a chance to stay with the major league team if he continues to perform well, etc., etc. But there are factors working against Volpe from becoming the starting Yankee shortstop out of the gate in 2023, thus damaging his chances for Rookie of the Year. The Yankees have a slew of experienced middle infielders (DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Oswald Peraza, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswaldo Cabrera) who figure to receive most of the playing time on a pennant contending team. Volpe has only spent 22 games in Triple A so the Yankees will most likely want to give him more experience there anyway before handing over the shortstop job. Volpe also has quite a bit of swing and miss in his game, striking out 118 times in 132 games last season, leading to a .249 batting average. But make no mistake about it. His blend of power (21 home runs, 35 doubles in 2022) and speed (50 stolen bases last season) at a premium defensive position like shortstop is tantalizing. Assuming he does not get more than 130 at-bats this season in the majors, he will be the leading candidate for American League Rookie of the Year in 2024. That’s the plan, anyway. But as we have seen in the past, all does not always go according to plan with prospects.
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